Highly unlikely, despite some wishful thinking from Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch of Reason magazine. In the Washington Post’s Outlook section, Gillespie and Welch cite the growing ranks of self-identified libertarians and the improbable netroots success of Ron Paul as proof that the libertarian movement is (or will soon be) a political force to be reckoned with:
When a fierce Republican foe of the wars on drugs and terrorism is able, without really trying, to pull in a record haul of campaign cash on a day dedicated to an attempted regicide, it’s clear that a new and potentially transformative force is growing in American politics.
I’m not sure I’d call liberty-mindedness a new force in American politics, and I’m not sure that I’d attribute Paul’s success to a growth in libertarianism so much as to the ability of the internet to pull together wackos and dissidents from all the corners of this great nation (or corners of parents’ basements, as the case may be). Moving right along:
But [Paul's] philosophy of principled libertarianism is anything but negative: It’s predicated on the fundamental notion that a smaller government allows individuals the freedom to pursue happiness as they see fit.
Given such a live-and-let-live ethos, it’s no surprise that at a time when people run screaming from such labels as “liberal” and “conservative,” you can hardly turn around in Washington, Hollywood or even Berkeley without running into another self-described libertarian.
[...]
In April 2006, the Pew Research Center published a study suggesting that 9 percent of Americans — more than enough to swing every presidential election since 1988 — espouse a “libertarian” ideology that opposes “government regulation in both the economic and the social spheres.”
I’m willing to bet that if you put that 9 percent sample in a room together and told them to come up with some brand spankin’ new legislation, they’d be no more able to reach a consensus than our current Congress.
Any movement with a chance of success has to be able to pull together some pretty disparate political factions and interests, so within any such movement you’ll have dissent.
But the libertarian self-description encompasses too broad a range of priorities to become the kind of election-swinging power that Gillespie and Welch hope for. Being a true libertarian is hard philosophical work, because it means saying no to all kinds of fun government interference. Most self-described libertarians aren’t willing to be government Puritans: they still want some intervention, just not everywhere. And if you get too many people saying “well, I don’t like bigger government, but we need it to do X,” the entire movement falls apart. There just isn’t enough unifying principle. And while some groups may overlap, they all differ on who they’re willing to throw under the bus in order to preserve what they believe is the most important kind of freedom.
Under the libertarian descriptor, you’ve got your free-marketeer libertarians, who believe that economic freedom is essential to all other freedoms. You’ve got your anti-religion libertarians, who believe that the “Religious Right” is the greatest threat to freedom, with all their moralizing and church-going (I’m looking at you, Christopher Hitchens). You’ve got your isolationists, who think that Iran will play nice with us if we just play nice with Iran. You’ve got your “I’m-a-lefty-in-disguise” libertarians, who think that freedom from low-wage work is just as important as freedom of speech. Then you’ve got your pot-smoking, “but George Washington grew hemp” crowd, your tech-savvy “save the interwebs and stop being so uptight about copyright” crowd, and your “9/11 was an inside job, planned by the CIA” crowd, all of whom at one point or another may claim the libertarian label.
You simply cannot make a cohesive movement out of this orgy of strange bedfellows.
First, the free-marketeers may side with the Christian conservative in order to promote a low-tax, free trade, deregulation agenda that both believe is in the nation’s best interest. Then the anti-religious right libertarians start yowling about government in our bedrooms and out-of-control morality, and get mad at the free-marketeers for their unholy alliance, while the isolationist crew gets mad that we’re spending so much on the military. The liberals-in-disguise group starts making noise about the fact that the free-market absolutists are giving corporations more power to exploit workers. The techie faction gets annoyed with the free-market faction for blocking regulation to ensure “Net Neutrality” and accuses them of being in the pocket of big business, and starts siding with the closeted liberals. Meanwhile, the marijuana legalization crowd, bored with the whole drama, goes out back to light-up, and the 9/11 Truth people confront presidential candidates in airports to hound them about the Council on Foreign Relations.
Different groups will emphasize different kinds of freedom more, and the divisions that arise keep libertarians from being an effective third party, or even an effective swing vote.
Random Ron Paul thought: Doesn’t he look like a cross between Dopey (of Snow White fame) and Ian McKellen?